What Will Happen In 2009?
We asked one of the country's top futurists, Dr Patrick Dixon, to take a look at the year to come, and answer a few questions on what should be in store for us! 1. Economy?
"These are exceptionally hard times. We are probably around half way through the current crisis - this has been going on already over 18 months. So we can expect a tough year ahead and things should start picking up in 2010. Companies that make redundancies early and have saved cash will do well in the upturn: lean and fit and with finances available to buy up other companies or assets at rock bottom prices. A lot of fuss has been made about the fall in the pound but this will be really good news for companies that sells goods or services outside the UK, this will also mean that people spend more at home - whether on holidays or other things." 2. The UK housing market! should we sell up or stay put? Should renting be a good option right now? Will housing become more affordable again?
"Each person's circumstances are totally unique but here are some general thoughts. The house market is likely to continue to fall sharply, but it should eventually level out. The more it falls, and the lower mortgage interest rates go, the more likely it will be that we see a rebound and a strong recovery, as many will decide to come back into the market or enter for the first time. Much has been written about mortgage markets changing forever, but that is unlikely. The mortgage market will eventually settle down, and will become more attractive and competitive again. Once we become convinced that we are in the early stages of a long and strong property price recovery, we will see loan to value ratios will become more relaxed, and we will see a return of 90% mortgages. Homeowner loans are the largest and most important financial transaction most will do in their lifetimes with the exception of pensions, and so will become once again a very important part of retail financial services.
"The cost of buying or selling is high with stamp duty, legal fees etc. Rents have not fallen as quickly as house prices in many areas so renting is more expensive than you may think. Housing is already more affordable than for years - we have seen salary inflation of 3.5% or more over the last 2 -3 years, while property prices have also fallen up to 15%. Put the two together and you have about 25% fall in costs - and this is before the mortgage rates started falling, by 30% in some cases. If you look at the whole picture it's most likely that in 6 months time we will see some wonderful bargains, with actual costs of ownership per month of less than 50 percent of what it was just 18 months ago. But first time buyers will still need a bigger deposit than in the past. Remember too: most people own to live in a home and not for a 2-10 year investment. It is vital to take a long term view in all property decisions." 3. The UK job market.. what industries are most likely to make high job cuts? What are employment chances like now if you lose your job?
"Retail jobs will be very hard hit in January to June as the reality begins to hit home. McDonalds, Lidl and some others trading at the bottom of their markets will continue to do very well. The jobs market in many sectors is surprisingly strong with 850,000 vacancies that were officially known about in December 2008. In past downturns it has been very unusual for well motivated and talented people to remain out of work for more than a year." 4. The credit/borrowing markets! will we stop being reliant on cheap credit? Will we now think about saving more?
"These things are just cycles. We are about to enter a cheap credit boom, fuelled by the lowest borrowing costs in history. The result in the medium term is most likely to be another overshoot, high inflation, high interest rates, eventually leading to another crash which could happen by 2015. As we have seen - swings can happen very fast from one end to the other."
To manage your finances over the coming months, whatever their age, those Britons concerned about their capacity to manage their money may want to apply for a cheap loan. By taking out such a loan, borrowers may find that they are able to merge various financial commitments into a single low-cost monthly repayment.
5. World economy! what affect will the world economy has on us all? What about pound and our travel/work abroad?
"The global economy will continue to lurch from event to event. All eyes will be watching the price of the dollar. Despite the massive US crisis the dollar has increased or retained value against most currencies, as billions of dollars of US investments in other nations are brought back to service debt and other urgent commitments. Eventually the massive return flows will slow down drastically. When this happens the big question is who will want to buy dollars? Countries like China have purchased over a trillion US dollars and are holding them for now. But what if they start to sell? They cannot sell too much or they will force a dollar crash and what is left of their assets will be worth much less. Although they could sell enough to force a gradual dollar decline"
Steve Smith writes for All About Loans. Visist us today to apply for cheap loans online, personal finance, and UK tenant loans.
Published January 22nd, 2009
Filed in Loans
